After several years of sharp market shifts, Sonoma County real estate appears to be entering a more measured phase. Early signs suggest that 2026 will be defined less by volatility and more by stability, with steady demand, modest price growth, and gradually improving inventory.
Home values are expected to continue rising, though at a slower and more sustainable pace. Rather than dramatic jumps, low single-digit appreciation is likely, reflecting a market that has largely found its footing. Well-located and well-maintained homes should continue to perform best, while pricing accuracy becomes increasingly important.
Inventory is also expected to loosen slightly. As homeowners grow more comfortable making moves and new construction adds modest supply, buyers may find more choice and less pressure than in recent years. This shift points toward a more balanced market, where negotiations feel more deliberate and timelines less compressed.
As always, local differences matter. Sonoma County is a collection of distinct communities, each shaped by its own demand drivers, lifestyle appeal, and price points. Those nuances will continue to define opportunities in 2026.
Overall, the year ahead looks less about timing the market and more about understanding it — a return to fundamentals in one of Northern California’s most enduring housing markets.
